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China has sent its coast guard through the maritime area of the Diaoyu islands and unmanned aerial vehicles near outlying Japanese territory as Beijing ramps up tensions over the Japan's leader's comments regarding the island of Taiwan.

Patrol Operations

This past Sunday, the Chinese coast guard stated that its ships carried out a “rights enforcement patrol” through the waters of the Diaoyu islands, which are administered by Tokyo but also asserted as territory by China.

“China coast guard vessel 1307 formation performed surveillance within the territorial waters of the Diaoyu islands. This was a lawful patrol operation conducted by the Chinese maritime authorities to protect its sovereign claims,” the statement said.

Bilateral Tensions

Beijing and Tokyo have repeatedly faced off around the islands but the recent developments come amid an escalating political dispute after the Japanese prime minister, the Japanese official, told parliament that if China attack democratically ruled Taiwan it could trigger a military response from Japan.

That sparked an angry response from Beijing, which has signalled it expects a retraction from Takaichi.

Island's Stance

Beijing asserts Taiwan as its sovereign land and plans to incorporate it under what it terms “unification”. It has not ruled out the military option. Taiwan’s government and citizens categorically refuse the prospect of Chinese rule – choosing to preserve the status quo without formally announcing independence, but pledging to protect their sovereignty if required.

An military assault by Beijing would threaten to spiral into a international confrontation, potentially involving the US and other partner nations including Japan, which has land just 110km (68 miles) from Taiwan.

Military Activity

On the island, the military authorities reported this weekend that it had detected three dozen PLA planes, seven navy ships and one government vessel, which was likely the maritime patrol, operating around the territory over the past 24 hours.

Official charts released showed up to multiple UAVs operating near Taiwan and the Japan's territory off its north-east coast, appearing to go unusually near to Yonaguni. PLA movements there are occasional, but infrequent, and Chinese military activity in the island's ADIZ generally has been minimal in recent weeks.

Late on Saturday, the defense officials said Beijing had been conducting another “joint combat patrol” to “harass the airspace and sea around us”. It noted the island had dispatched military assets to monitor the situation. The island reports such Chinese patrols a few times monthly as part of what Taipei says is an ongoing military pressure campaign.

Political Strain

Tokyo has been facing mounting pressure from China since the Japanese official made her remarks, with China’s consul general in Osaka prompting a formal protest from Tokyo by stating that “those who interfere will face consequences”.

China then called in Japan's diplomat for the first time in more than two years, and China’s defence ministry declared that any Tokyo's involvement would be certain to collapse.

Warning for Citizens

Late last week, China advised its people to avoid visiting Japan, leading Japan to request China to take “suitable actions”, though it did not elaborate.

Multiple carriers from China announced this weekend that flights to Tokyo could be cancelled without penalty.

Adding to the tensions, Beijing's administration on Sunday advised students to rethink education plans in Japan, citing what it described as an volatile safety situation.

Although not an outright prohibition, a significant decrease in the population of learners from China could have a negative impact on Japanese universities. A record 336,708 foreign nationals were enrolled in Japanese schools last year, according to official data. They featured over 123,000 learners from China – by far the largest demographic.

Official Commentary

Earlier this weekend, a Chinese state media editorial charged the Japanese official with performing a diplomatic maneuver that was “not just dangerously provocative but fundamentally perverse”.

“A conflict between Japan and China would not be a small-scale encounter; it would likely draw in other nations, including the US, and could rapidly escalate to a large-scale conflict with severe repercussions.”

Strategic Positions

The administration in Taipei says only its people can decide its future. Officials in Tokyo have traditionally refrained from discussing the island openly when addressing potential conflicts, maintaining a “deliberate vagueness” also favoured by Tokyo’s main security ally, the US.

Nevertheless, China’s ruling Communist party says the incorporation of the island with the People’s Republic of China is “unavoidable”, and casts any opposition to it as escalatory. As it advances toward potential armed takeover, China has also been escalating its non-military activity and its statements towards Taiwan.